Researchers at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health studied state laws that limit magazine size. "Considering that mass shootings with high capacity semiautomatics are considerably more lethal and injurious than other mass shootings, it is reasonable to argue that the federal ban could have prevented some of the recent increase in persons killed and injured in mass shootings had it remained in place," Koper wrote. Much of that stems from the firepower that comes from large-capacity magazines. The most striking trend, he said, is less about the modest fall in deaths under the ban, and more about the dramatic rise that came when the ban ended. In a 2020 article, Koper wrote that more than the semiautomatic weapons themselves, the latest data ties larger magazines to a rising death toll. Recently, Koper has spent more time assessing the role of large-capacity magazines that hold more than 10 rounds. Koper wrote the 2004 study that gave both sides in the gun control debate supporting material. The debate over the value of a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines often includes Christopher Koper at George Mason University. In a 2019 article, Louis Klarevas, a Columbia University researcher, and his co-authors found that shootings in which six or more people died were less common and less deadly in the years during the ban. His isn’t the only study to find that fewer people died in mass shootings when the ban was in effect. Viewed that way, they found that between 19, the yearly rate fell by 9 people per 10,000 firearm homicides.ĭiMaggio’s study concluded that mass shooting deaths were 70% less likely during the ban. To help account for those, DiMaggio’s team put mass shooting deaths in terms of the total number of firearm homicides. The death toll from mass shootings went from an average of 4.8 per year during the ban years to an average of 23.8 per year in the decade afterwards. The decline of 15 deaths between the decade before the ban and the decade during it is modest, but there is a clear and dramatic rise after the ban expired. Deaths more than tripled in the decade after the ban ended. In raw numbers, they found that mass shooting deaths fell during the years of the ban, and rose afterwards. DiMaggio’s group looked at incidents in which at least four people died. Researchers define mass shootings in different ways. In a 2019 study from New York University’s School of Medicine, a group led by epidemiologist Charles DiMaggio homed in on mass shooting deaths. As long as that hardware remained in circulation, people who wanted to use these weapons in a mass shooting would have some opportunity to acquire them. The point was the 1994 law was hardly an on-off switch for these firearms and magazines. Justice Department, researcher Christopher Koper wrote, "The ban’s exemption of millions of pre-ban assault weapons and large capacity magazines ensured that the effects of the law would occur only gradually." An estimated 25 million weapons were equipped with large-capacity magazines. When the ban took effect, there were roughly 1.5 million assault weapons in private hands. People who already owned such weaponry could keep it. The 1994 law barred the "manufacture, transfer, and possession" of about 118 firearm models and all magazines holding more than 10 rounds. Beyond assault weapons, more recent work points to the threat posed by large-capacity magazines, which the 1994 law also restricted. While other researchers said the decline during the ban was too small to draw firm conclusions about the ban’s impact, there is no debate that the pace and deadliness of mass shootings rose after the ban ended. ![]() That’s the time frame for Biden’s statement. ![]() A 2019 study out of New York University’s School of Medicine found that mass shooting deaths involving assault weapons fell slightly in the decade of the federal assault weapon ban, and then rose dramatically in the decade that followed. Among other changes, it banned certain kinds of weapons, and the large-capacity magazines that allow people to fire more bullets before reloading. Biden was thinking back to sweeping gun legislation passed in 1994.
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